Proposed Energy Mix by 2050

I wrote this paper for a course on Energy and Society, where our final project asked us to envision what the U.S. energy mix might look like by 2050. The analysis presented here is the result of extensive research into the historical and current energy mix, along with an evaluation of the social, environmental, and technical factors shaping future energy systems.

Energy Mix

Historical Energy Mix

From 1885 to 1950, coal was the primary fuel source for energy production in the United States, driven by its abundance, low cost, and suitability for powering steam engines and electricity generation in an industrializing economy (EIA, 2024). In 1950, petroleum-based fuels overtook coal to become the dominant source of energy, a transition fueled by post–World War II economic growth, mass adoption of automobiles, and the expansion of highway infrastructure. Petroleum, however, was used primarily for transportation rather than electricity generation (EIA, 2024).

Since that shift, coal has been used mainly for electricity production, alongside natural gas, which rose to become the second-largest energy source in 1958 due to its cleaner combustion, expanding pipeline networks, and technological advances in extraction (EIA, 2024).

In the 1980s, ethanol-blended gasoline and biodiesel-blended diesel entered the U.S. energy mix, promoted by agricultural policy incentives and a desire to reduce dependence on imported oil (EIA, 2024; Reisser et al., 2018). By the mid-1990s, wind and solar power began to register measurable contributions, aided by falling technology costs, federal and state tax incentives, and growing environmental awareness. Since then, renewable sources such as solar, wind, and hydropower have steadily increased their share of electricity generation, supported by continued technological improvements, climate policy measures, and shifting market economics in favor of low-carbon energy (Reisser et al., 2018).

Data from Our World in Data (n.d.) illustrates how the U.S. energy mix evolved from 1965 to 2010, measured in per capita kilowatt-hours (kWh):

Year Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydropower Wind Solar Other renewables
1965 16479 32784 21257 54 2824 0.0 0.0 212
1975 16088 41299 2411 2301 3881 0.0 0.0 281
1985 20134 35336 19320 4641 3300 0.07 0.12 470
1995 20853 35793 22295 7341 3223 33.0 5.0 737
2010 18647 31803 20838 7111 2153 811.0 25.0 754

U.S. Per Capita Energy Consumption by Source (1965–2010)

Current Energy Mix

Since 2010, the U.S. energy mix has undergone significant changes. Coal consumption has steadily declined, while natural gas use has increased, making it one of the leading energy sources. Renewable energy—particularly wind and solar—has expanded rapidly, surpassing coal in total consumption. Hydropower remains in use but has experienced a modest decline. Despite these shifts, petroleum continues to be the most consumed energy source overall (EIA, 2024; Our World in Data, n.d.).

In 2016, biofuels became the most consumed renewable energy source in the United States, overtaking wood combustion (EIA, 2024). By 2022, biodiesel consumption had surpassed that of petroleum diesel, reflecting a growing reliance on renewable fuels (EIA, 2024).

In 2023, the United States consumed 94 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) of energy. Of this total, fossil fuels accounted for 83%, while non-fossil fuel sources made up the remaining 17% (EIA, 2024). That same year, renewable energy consumption exceeded that of coal, although petroleum remained the dominant energy source (EIA, 2023).

The following table presents the 2024 U.S. energy mix, measured in kilowatt-hours (kWh) per capita (Our World in Data, n.d.):

Year Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydropower Wind Solar Other renewables
2024 6356 28801 26118 5812 1685 3234 2162 594

U.S. Per Capita Energy Consumption by Source (1965–2024)

Issues

One of the primary concerns with the current energy mix in the United States is that the most widely used fuels—petroleum, coal, and natural gas—emit greenhouse gases and other pollutants into the atmosphere. These emissions degrade air quality and negatively impact the health and well-being of communities located near the sources of pollution. Importantly, it is not only fossil fuels that contribute to these issues; even renewable sources such as wood combustion can emit greenhouse gases and particulate matter that exacerbates air pollution and climate change. Moreover, fossil fuels are non-renewable. Once depleted, they cannot be replenished, making them unsustainable for long-term energy security (Reisser et al., 2018).

Petroleum is a major driver of environmental degradation and climate change. Gasoline and diesel, the primary fuels derived from petroleum, are among the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions due to their widespread use in transportation. In addition to CO₂, the combustion of these fuels releases other harmful pollutants that contribute to smog, air pollution, and acid rain (Reisser et al., 2018). Petroleum extraction also poses environmental risks, including contaminated water, spills, and ecosystem disruption.

Coal presents some of the most severe environmental and health risks across its lifecycle. When burned, coal releases substantial amounts of CO₂ along with ash and fine particulates that degrade air quality. Mining methods such as strip mining cause extensive ecological damage, while underground mining exposes workers to methane and coal dust, leading to diseases such as Black Lung Disease (Reisser et al., 2018).

Natural gas is often considered cleaner than coal and oil, but it remains a significant contributor to climate change. Methane leaks from extraction and distribution systems can negate its climate benefits, as methane is far more potent than CO₂ (Reisser et al., 2018). Hydraulic fracturing also raises concerns related to groundwater contamination and seismic activity.

Proposed Mix

2050

Today, the U.S. electrical grid relies on a diverse mix of power generation sources managed primarily by private companies and municipal utilities. As the nation transitions toward a more carbon-neutral energy mix, there is an opportunity to reevaluate the centralized energy model in favor of a decentralized approach (EIA, 2024).

In a decentralized model, homes and businesses would install rooftop solar paired with battery storage systems. Excess energy could be exported to the grid, while surplus grid electricity could recharge distributed batteries. This approach could account for approximately 18% of the total energy mix.

Grid-scale solar, wind, and nuclear projects could provide an additional 24% of national energy needs. Nuclear expansion requires long-term spent fuel storage solutions, regulatory updates, and public acceptance. Recycling spent nuclear fuel could extend uranium availability (Reisser et al., 2018).

Geothermal energy and landfill-based biomass could supply approximately 2% of the energy mix. Geothermal is regionally dependent, while landfill methane capture significantly reduces net emissions.

The transportation sector could transition primarily to ethanol, biodiesel, and electric vehicles, representing approximately 56% of total energy use. These fuels reduce emissions while maintaining compatibility with existing vehicles and infrastructure.

Proposed 2050 Energy Mix Summary:

Justification

Grid-scale wind and solar are intermittent and lack sufficient large-scale storage. On-site battery storage reduces energy loss by delivering power directly as DC, improving efficiency by avoiding AC–DC conversion losses of 5–10% (Sinopoli, 2012). Local storage also improves grid resilience during outages.

Electricity demand will increase substantially, particularly from AI data centers, projected to require 1,065 TWh annually by 2030 (Deloitte Insights, 2024). Nuclear energy provides reliable, zero-emission baseload power to meet these demands.

Geothermal energy offers continuous clean power in suitable regions, while landfill methane biomass captures emissions that would otherwise contribute to climate change. Ethanol and biodiesel provide immediately deployable, lower-emission transportation fuels compatible with existing vehicles.

Pathway

Distributed battery storage systems are already commercially viable. Redirecting investments from centralized storage toward residential and commercial deployment would improve resilience.

As of 2023, there are 128.45 million households in the U.S. (Korhonen, 2024). Projections estimate approximately 212 million households by 2050. At $2.70 per watt, a 15 kW solar installation would cost $40,500 per household, totaling approximately $8.586 trillion nationwide. Economies of scale and integrated systems, such as Tesla’s solar-plus-battery packages (~$36,000), could significantly reduce costs (Tesla, n.d.).

Households in the United States from 1960 to 2023 (in millions)

Public skepticism toward nuclear energy must be addressed through education and permanent fuel storage solutions. Landfills should upgrade methane capture infrastructure, with regulations to ensure monitoring and maintenance.

To avoid food price volatility, ethanol production should shift away from corn toward sugarcane and cellulosic sources. Governments should extend tax incentives, streamline permitting, modernize the grid, and invest in distributed energy integration.

References

Deloitte Insights. (2024, November 8). GenAI power consumption creates need for more sustainable data centers. Deloitte. https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/technology/technology-media-and-telecom-predictions/2025/genai-power-consumption-creates-need-for-more-sustainable-data-centers.html

National Renewable Energy Laboratory. (n.d.). Solar installed system cost analysis. U.S. Department of Energy. https://www.nrel.gov/solar/market-research-analysis/solar-installed-system-cost

Korhonen, V. (2024, July 5). Number of households in the U.S. from 1960 to 2023. Statistica. https://www.statista.com/statistics/183635/number-of-households-in-the-us/

Our World in Data. (n.d.). Per‑capita primary energy consumption (stacked) – United States [Data chart]. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-stacked?time=earliest&country=~USA

Reisser, W., & Reisser, C. (2018). Energy Resources: From Science to Society. Oxford University Press Academic US. https://mbsdirect.vitalsource.com/books/9780190651619

Sinopoli, J. (2012, November 15). Using DC power to save energy — and end the war on currents. Trellis. https://trellis.net/article/using-dc-power-save-energy-and-end-war-currents/

Tesla, Inc. (n.d.). Powerwall – Home battery storage. https://www.tesla.com/powerwall

U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2024, July 3). How has energy use changed throughout U.S. history? Today in Energy. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62444

U.S. Energy Information Administration. (n.d.). Electricity in the U.S. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us.php

U.S. Energy Information Administration. (n.d.). U.S. energy facts. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/

U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2024, July 15). U.S. energy facts explained: Consumption and production. U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/

U.S. Energy Information Administration. (n.d). Geothermal explained. U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/geothermal/

U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2024, November 19). Waste‑to‑energy (Municipal Solid Waste). In Biomass explained. U.S. Department of Energy. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/biomass/waste-to-energy.php